What correlates with NHL salaries? Particularly Kadri's...
1 -- How good is Nazem Kadri?
2 -- How do we determine if a player is good?
3 -- How does goodness impact player salary?
4 -- How do GMs set player salary?
I'm really dealing with the fourth question here. How do GMs set player salary?
I recently stumbled across Robert Vollman's bit 'ole spreadsheet of every stat you can imagine for NHL players. I ran some regressions to determine what actually predicts player salary. This approach would be considered fishing by data purists but I'm okay with it. I'm focusing on data from 2014/2015. Ideally, I'd replicate findings with a split sample or across multiple years... but I'm not.
A few considerations:
- Rank. I'm not actually concerned about the actual metrics. I'm working with their ranks. For example, does the player with the 17th best GAR and 17th best TOI get the 17th best salary? This approach addresses some of the underlying issues with data linearity and normalcy.
- Full-time NHL centremen. I've reduced the set to centres who have played at least 15 games in 2015/2015.
- Limited ELCs. I've eliminated players who were drafted in 2012, 2013, or 2014 to minimize the impact of ELCs on overall cap hit.
- Cap cost. I'm not actually looking at salary. Specifically, I'm just exploring "Cost of player against salary cap (over 82 games)."
- Rank.IPP -- Percentage of all team goals scored on the ice on which the player got a point
- Rank.PS/G -- Point Shares per Game
- Rank.OGIT -- Offensive ice time
- Rank.GVT/60 -- GVT per 60 minutes played
- Rank.FO GAR -- Face Off Gar
- Rank.Days -- Number of days player counted towards the salary cap